To begin with, let’s get rid of what might be misunderstood about this project. Just because the mean is 5.5 doesn’t mean the probability of 5 is the same as the probability of 6. They are close, but the probability of 5 is 18.5% and the probability of 6 is 17.3%.
So, what is the probability that the number will appear 8 times? An astronomical 8.7%. In other words, it is somewhat common, although not the most frequent occurrence. It takes one number that comes up 15 times before we find something that is rarer than 1 in 10,000.
And, like I said at the start, we can all make the numbers say what we want with a little bit of hand. The numbers presented here depend on one another. In 33 reels, if one number appears 8 times, there are only 25 more rolls for the other 5 numbers. It’s not the same as me rolling the dice 33 times and just counting how many 1s I got and then repeating it all over and over again. The results in this case will vary from the examples I present.
So what’s the point of all this? Pay close attention when someone is just throwing a lot of numbers at you. You have to make sure that you are comparing apples to apples.
Numbers are rotatable and it usually takes a lot of important information to get a complete picture of what’s going on. Most importantly, very little of what actually happened was “outside the norm,” meaning the game was not rigged.
The final part of the Expert Strategy is knowing what to expect and is by far the largest and in many cases the most important aspect of the strategy. In our little die case, rolling 1 eight times is perfectly normal. However, if you play a game based on that and start to convince yourself that the dice have been rigged, you may find yourself believing that 1 is really more likely than the other numbers and then change your strategy based on that.